Elections: The difference between Traditional Electoral Polls vs Electoral Campaign Management.

Currently, the country is experiencing significant electoral polarization. This political polarization, noticeable over the last nearly 10 years, is also reflected in the electoral period.

In any electoral process in Brazil, it is very common to see the publication of information about voting intentions in the major media, whether television or not, demonstrating how much a specific candidate for a particular public office is aligned with the electorate.

Similarly, information regarding the rejection of certain candidates is also published. These polls only present the rejection percentages of candidates A or B, without offering any innovative insights.

This information is used by the agents involved in the electoral process to make decisions in their campaigns, aiming to manage and adapt strategies in order to achieve better results at the polls.

Typically, these electoral polls, which are widely disclosed and discussed by society and political analysts in the country, are based exclusively on the percentage of individuals expressing their intention to vote for a candidate, whether from the left, right, or the so-called center.

However, there has been a growing questioning of the practices adopted by traditional electoral polling companies in the country, as the results they present to society do not always reflect what is later observed in the polls. Often, there is a significant discrepancy between the data released beforehand and the actual results.

On the other hand, when we talk about Electoral Campaign Management (ECM), we are addressing electoral polls from a new perspective, as we are implementing an internal management process within party committees, adding new information that can guide new directions in electoral campaigns, whether municipal, state, or federal.

ECM, in addition to the traditional information addressed by current polls such as voting intentions and rejection rates includes, in this context, the information of PROBABILITY.

In ECM, probability has the ability to indicate, through data collected from voters, the likelihood of specific segments of society being willing to vote for a particular candidate.

In other words, we can generate information, for example, about the probability of a MARRIED WOMAN WITH A UNIVERSITY DEGREE voting or not voting for a particular candidate.

With this information, we make the management of electoral campaigns more dynamic and attentive to the various characteristics of voters in the country. In this way, campaign managers can adapt their strategies to better reach certain electoral segments, aiming to reverse possible outcomes at the polls and maximize the results to be tallied.

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